CAN THE WORLD’S PEOPLES BE FED IN THE LONG RUN?
Erle Frayne D. Argonza
“In
the long run, we shall all be dead!” – John Maynard Keynes
Good day to you fellow
global citizens!
By the year 2050, the
world’s present human population will breach the 10 billion mark. That’s what
the forecasts are saying so far, although it is always possible that
assumptions done in the forecast may not work in the future.
At any rate, yielding a
population figure that is based on zero population growth or ZPG is all wishful
thinking. World population is now growing at 80 millions annually, and there is
no indicating a reversal or decline of the number of babies born and survived
annually (less the numbers of death).
There just aren’t enough
land to treat as frontier lands anymore, sufficient to yield greater harvests. Human
food production is still based largely on land cultivation, though hydroponics
was already perfected in the late 1980s yet, which can considerably shift
production stress away from land. So we will still be stuck up with land-based
cultivation + land- based fish farming + land-based livestock production.
As studies show, the
sub-Saharan (desert largely) has the potential for feeding an additional 4
billions of warm bodies. This is quite some good news so far, though it only is
a palliative. Unless that population growth will taper down slowly across the
coming decades, till it possibly gets nearer ZPG, the feeding problem will be a
headache for humanity in the long run.
Below is a very
interesting report about the feeding forecasts and problems anticipated in food
production in the long run.
[Manila, 10 October 2013]
Focus on Poverty: How can we feed ten billion people?
Speed read
·
Demand for
food is set to outstrip supply and there is little spare land for crops
·
But Sub-Saharan
Africa has great potential to increase production
·
As well as
science, inequality and consumption patterns must be considered
It will be even
harder to feed the world in 2050, but African farmers could be key, says Roger
Williamson.
An alarming study has found that major crop yields are increasing too slowly to meet future food demands. With the latest UN projections suggesting a world population of 9.6 billion by 2050 [1] and the population rising by more than 80 million a year — with the fastest rates in some of the most populous African countries — how will the human race feed itself?
In future, will we be talking about three to four billion people in extreme poverty rather than the current 'bottom billion'?
A recent, timely book, 10 Billion by Stephen Emmott [2], paints a bleak picture. Emmott examines technological fixes or changes in behaviour or political will as potential solutions, but says these are likely to fail.
This conclusion must be taken seriously. A key part of his narrative is that there is simply not enough land to feed the growing population — more importantly, one with growing food needs. What's left are cities, where you buy food (not grow it); oceans, which are largely being overfished; forests; and desert. Thus there are only two real possibilities: somehow finding more land to cultivate or improving yields from existing cropland.
A video posted online earlier this month by the ReCom programme — which aims to research and communicate what works in foreign aid — of the UN University-World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), based in Finland, provides a more hopeful scenario for Africa.
In it, Ephraim Nkonya, a Tanzanian land management specialist at the International Food Policy Research Institute, makes the surprising statement that Africa could become the world's breadbasket.
His argument hinges around two interlinked opportunities — that the yield gap for current and maximum potential production for crops is greatest in Sub-Saharan Africa, and that there is potential for radically expanding food production through increasing the area of land under production. According to Nkonya, 90 per cent of all land that could be brought under cultivation is in Africa or Latin America.
Akio Hosono, of the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Research Institute, recently presented positive examples of the latter at a UNU-WIDER conference. He highlighted the use of Brazil's vast Cerrado region for soya production. [3] JICA and the Brazilians are exploring this model's applicability to Mozambique. [4]
However, increasing crop yields by expanding the area under cultivation often means deforestation. Intensification of yield is the key.
Forecasts of having three to four billion people living in absolute poverty, and strategies for eradicating this problem, are questions for science, but they are also more than that. Social and economic issues of extreme inequality (for example around access to land) and consumption patterns (for example ensuring that resources for food production are distributed equally) are also vital elements to the mix.
Roger Williamson is an independent consultant and visiting fellow at the Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex, United Kingdom. Previous positions include organising nearly 80 international policy conferences for the UK Foreign Office and being head of policy and campaigns at Christian Aid.
An alarming study has found that major crop yields are increasing too slowly to meet future food demands. With the latest UN projections suggesting a world population of 9.6 billion by 2050 [1] and the population rising by more than 80 million a year — with the fastest rates in some of the most populous African countries — how will the human race feed itself?
In future, will we be talking about three to four billion people in extreme poverty rather than the current 'bottom billion'?
A recent, timely book, 10 Billion by Stephen Emmott [2], paints a bleak picture. Emmott examines technological fixes or changes in behaviour or political will as potential solutions, but says these are likely to fail.
This conclusion must be taken seriously. A key part of his narrative is that there is simply not enough land to feed the growing population — more importantly, one with growing food needs. What's left are cities, where you buy food (not grow it); oceans, which are largely being overfished; forests; and desert. Thus there are only two real possibilities: somehow finding more land to cultivate or improving yields from existing cropland.
A video posted online earlier this month by the ReCom programme — which aims to research and communicate what works in foreign aid — of the UN University-World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), based in Finland, provides a more hopeful scenario for Africa.
In it, Ephraim Nkonya, a Tanzanian land management specialist at the International Food Policy Research Institute, makes the surprising statement that Africa could become the world's breadbasket.
His argument hinges around two interlinked opportunities — that the yield gap for current and maximum potential production for crops is greatest in Sub-Saharan Africa, and that there is potential for radically expanding food production through increasing the area of land under production. According to Nkonya, 90 per cent of all land that could be brought under cultivation is in Africa or Latin America.
Akio Hosono, of the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Research Institute, recently presented positive examples of the latter at a UNU-WIDER conference. He highlighted the use of Brazil's vast Cerrado region for soya production. [3] JICA and the Brazilians are exploring this model's applicability to Mozambique. [4]
However, increasing crop yields by expanding the area under cultivation often means deforestation. Intensification of yield is the key.
Forecasts of having three to four billion people living in absolute poverty, and strategies for eradicating this problem, are questions for science, but they are also more than that. Social and economic issues of extreme inequality (for example around access to land) and consumption patterns (for example ensuring that resources for food production are distributed equally) are also vital elements to the mix.
Roger Williamson is an independent consultant and visiting fellow at the Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex, United Kingdom. Previous positions include organising nearly 80 international policy conferences for the UK Foreign Office and being head of policy and campaigns at Christian Aid.
References
[1] Worldwatch Institute Fertility Surprises Portend a More Populous Future
(Worldwatch Institute, 10 July 2013)
[2] Emmott, S. 10 Billion (Penguin, 2013)
[3] Hosono, A. Industrial Strategy and Economic Transformation (ReCom, accessed 26 July 2013)
[4] Hosono, A. South-South/Triangular Cooperation and Capacity Development. In K. Hiroshi (ed) Scaling Up South-South and Triangular Cooperation (JICA Research Institute, November 2012)
[2] Emmott, S. 10 Billion (Penguin, 2013)
[3] Hosono, A. Industrial Strategy and Economic Transformation (ReCom, accessed 26 July 2013)
[4] Hosono, A. South-South/Triangular Cooperation and Capacity Development. In K. Hiroshi (ed) Scaling Up South-South and Triangular Cooperation (JICA Research Institute, November 2012)
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