Bro. Erle Frayne Argonza y Delago
Good afternoon, Fellows on Earth!
As already presented by this writer/analyst in my previous notes and articles, the current state of affairs of the global economy—which featured the inflationary upswings in the food and energy sectors—have a great deal to do with the machinations of the global financiers or oligarchy.
Across the ideological and paradigm streams, there has been the preponderance for speculations by the same financiers and subalterns that have been the main upward driver of prices in oil and food. The very same operators were also responsible for the temporary upswing in the price of the US dollar which remains as the chief legal tender for exchanging oil.
Below is an article from the Executive Intelligence Review that authenticates to a large degree the positions I took so far regarding oil and food.
[Writ 01 July 2008, Quezon City, Manila]
LaRouche: British Are Behind Food and Energy Hyperinflation
June 22, 2008--This release was issued on June 22 by the Lyndon Larouche Political Action Committee (LPAC).
Lyndon LaRouche today forcefully denounced Prince Philip and his fellow genocidalists in the Anglo-Dutch oligarchy, for willfully promoting the food and energy hyperinflation, which threatens to kill billions of people around the globe. "You cannot understand the current hyperinflationary crisis," LaRouche charged, "without first considering Prince Philip and the late Prince Bernhard's stated committment to wipe out 80% of the human population, through a combination of wars, diseases and famine. If Prince Philip, and his slavish followers like Al Gore were to succeed, the population of the planet would be reduced, in the next several generations, to well-under two billion people."
LaRouche was responding to news reports, in the past 24 hours, that the combined food and energy hyperinflation, has created a global national security crisis, threatening the survival of such leading nations as China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Zimbabwe, Morocco, and Egypt. "I warned, months ago, that the food crisis would soon emerge as the number one issue facing every government in the world," LaRouche commented. "The combined shock of $140 a barrel oil and food hyperinflation and shortages, willfully promoted by Anglo-Dutch speculators and their oligarchical backers, has thrown the world into an immediate crisis."
On Sunday, June 22, representatives of the world's leading oil producing and oil consuming countries will meet in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, to consider actions to deal with the crisis. Over 40 nations around the globe have been rocked by food riots and other protests over the hyperinflationary crisis, and the worst shocks, LaRouche warned, are coming during the immediate summer months ahead. "By the time we reach October," LaRouche warned, "the situation will be catastrophic."
"There are remedies, even at this late date, to deal with the energy and food hyperinflation," LaRouche continued, "but nothing is going to work unless and until we crush the power of the British oligarchy." LaRouche asked: "Do you really think that Saudi Arabia is going to cooperate, so long as their BAE ties to London remain intact—even if the very survival of the Saudi Royal Family is at stake?"
Finalist-PhilBlogAwards 2010
Finalist for society, politics, history blogs
Showing posts with label oil price hike. Show all posts
Showing posts with label oil price hike. Show all posts
Friday, July 04, 2008
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
OIL PRICE HIKES AND MILITARY COUPS: PHILIPPINE CASE
Bro. Erle Frayne Argonza
Kapayapaan! Paz! Pax! Peace!
Oil price hike or OPH can be a precipitating factor behind military coups d etat. Since OPH is among the world’s focal issues today, we may as well reflect on a country case to examine how the OPH precipitated the launching of military coups: the Philippine case.
Before everything else, I hope the difference between military coup and mutiny is clear to the readers. A military coup is an offensive action aimed at a seizure of state power (coup d’etat). A mutiny is a defensive action, sometimes not sufficiently planned but a reaction against perceived injustices, often localized, and isn’t necessarily aimed at a seizure of state power.
In Manila’s experience, there never was a case of a mutiny that was precipitated by the OPH issue. But couples of military coups were launched that began with the OPH issue, and moved on to well organized assaults by an equally well equipped and fairly quantitatively endowed ‘warm bodies’ of an insurgent force within the national army that is backed up by its fraternal cadres within the national police.
The coup events took place in the 1980s yet, and were waged by the RAM-YOU-SFP coalition of army + police officers and enlisted men. RAM stands for Reform the Armed Forces Union, a reformist group of middle officers; YOU, Young Officers Union, a group of militant, radical nationalist junior officers; and, SFP, Soldiers of the Filipino People, a group of officers and personnel professing loyalty to the deposed dictator Ferdinand Marcos. The same coalition signed a peace pact with the Ramos regime in the 1990s, its top leader Col. Honasan had been elected senator of the republic, and is among the insurgent groups that signed a negotiated settlement with the Philippine state.
OPH-precipitated coups have been confined to the 1980s events since then, the recent attempts at seizures of power being anchored on a different set of issues. However, it should be noted that the strategic issues raised by the military insurgents then till now have always been the 3 Cs: corruption, criminality, and communism. With the decline of the Cold War and the decriminalization of membership in communist parties (repeal of Republic Act 1700 or Anti-Subversion Law), communism has become a less palatable factor in the coup formulas.
The event often ran this way (simplified timeline):
· An OPH is officially announced, automatically raising the prices of gasoline, kerosene, diesel, lubricants, and an assorted list of fossil fuel-based downstream commodities. This will then lead to a spiraling of OPHs within days to weeks.
· Perceiving the erosive impact of OPH on the purchasing power of laborers, the Left forces would then wage coordinated trade union protest to bring down oil prices. Middle forces and transport groups join the actions, and major cities become paralyzed. The popular actions would culminate in boycotts and calls for ‘general strike’ orchestrated particularly by the Maoists (e.g BAYAN, KMU).
· The ‘general strike’ option is perceived as a take-over by the Communists of the state. As a pre-emptive strike to save the Philippine state from totalitarian downslide, the military insurgents launch a coup that ought to be as wide-scale in scope as possible. Certain establishments (e.g. state media) are seized, select military camps are bombed and captured, aerial assaults provide air cover, until some event will put a stop to the actions. (e.g. in the 1989 coup, the US Air Force provided ‘persuasion flights’ support to Corazon Aquino to scare away the Tora-Tora planes of the insurgents).
Sadly for the insurgents, and fortunately for the middle classes who would never again support any authoritarian regime in the Philippines, no coup attempt ever succeeded at all. However, this is not to present a fixed idea that no military coup will ever succeed in the future, this is another matter altogether.
Since the coup option has never faded in the minds of the army officers here, analysts and forecasters have to re-open the possibility of the OPH becoming again a precipitating factor in launching one general assault soon. The same thing holds for other countries as well, such as those 40+ countries that saw urban riots took place as protest reactions to ‘grains price hikes’ or GPH. A confluence of OPH-GPH would serve as a very powerful precipitating impetus for waging a coup assault for that matter.
The tall order than is to nip the bud by presenting well-blended policy mixtures and institutional adjustments to the consumers. Incidentally, this is easier said than done. Since the magnitude of OPH is indubitably global, and the causal global factors are so complex, the forced option is to use populist welfare tools such as massive subsidies to food, tax cuts, taking off oil value-added tax or VAT, trimming down import duties, and so on.
Whether such actions will not redound to hyper-inflation and fiscal catastrophe in the short run is something worth observing. In which case, spiraling hyper-inflation can be the precipitating factor, with OPH serving as one factor precipitating it (hyper-inflation). Let us see how the various states, both developed and emerging markets, will respond to the OPH and downward economic spiral of the moment.
Meantime, our jittered state officials will have sleepless nights forthcoming as army insurgents on the loose are busy organizing for their next ‘golpe de estado’ adventure.
[Writ 24 June 2008, Quezon City, MetroManila]
Kapayapaan! Paz! Pax! Peace!
Oil price hike or OPH can be a precipitating factor behind military coups d etat. Since OPH is among the world’s focal issues today, we may as well reflect on a country case to examine how the OPH precipitated the launching of military coups: the Philippine case.
Before everything else, I hope the difference between military coup and mutiny is clear to the readers. A military coup is an offensive action aimed at a seizure of state power (coup d’etat). A mutiny is a defensive action, sometimes not sufficiently planned but a reaction against perceived injustices, often localized, and isn’t necessarily aimed at a seizure of state power.
In Manila’s experience, there never was a case of a mutiny that was precipitated by the OPH issue. But couples of military coups were launched that began with the OPH issue, and moved on to well organized assaults by an equally well equipped and fairly quantitatively endowed ‘warm bodies’ of an insurgent force within the national army that is backed up by its fraternal cadres within the national police.
The coup events took place in the 1980s yet, and were waged by the RAM-YOU-SFP coalition of army + police officers and enlisted men. RAM stands for Reform the Armed Forces Union, a reformist group of middle officers; YOU, Young Officers Union, a group of militant, radical nationalist junior officers; and, SFP, Soldiers of the Filipino People, a group of officers and personnel professing loyalty to the deposed dictator Ferdinand Marcos. The same coalition signed a peace pact with the Ramos regime in the 1990s, its top leader Col. Honasan had been elected senator of the republic, and is among the insurgent groups that signed a negotiated settlement with the Philippine state.
OPH-precipitated coups have been confined to the 1980s events since then, the recent attempts at seizures of power being anchored on a different set of issues. However, it should be noted that the strategic issues raised by the military insurgents then till now have always been the 3 Cs: corruption, criminality, and communism. With the decline of the Cold War and the decriminalization of membership in communist parties (repeal of Republic Act 1700 or Anti-Subversion Law), communism has become a less palatable factor in the coup formulas.
The event often ran this way (simplified timeline):
· An OPH is officially announced, automatically raising the prices of gasoline, kerosene, diesel, lubricants, and an assorted list of fossil fuel-based downstream commodities. This will then lead to a spiraling of OPHs within days to weeks.
· Perceiving the erosive impact of OPH on the purchasing power of laborers, the Left forces would then wage coordinated trade union protest to bring down oil prices. Middle forces and transport groups join the actions, and major cities become paralyzed. The popular actions would culminate in boycotts and calls for ‘general strike’ orchestrated particularly by the Maoists (e.g BAYAN, KMU).
· The ‘general strike’ option is perceived as a take-over by the Communists of the state. As a pre-emptive strike to save the Philippine state from totalitarian downslide, the military insurgents launch a coup that ought to be as wide-scale in scope as possible. Certain establishments (e.g. state media) are seized, select military camps are bombed and captured, aerial assaults provide air cover, until some event will put a stop to the actions. (e.g. in the 1989 coup, the US Air Force provided ‘persuasion flights’ support to Corazon Aquino to scare away the Tora-Tora planes of the insurgents).
Sadly for the insurgents, and fortunately for the middle classes who would never again support any authoritarian regime in the Philippines, no coup attempt ever succeeded at all. However, this is not to present a fixed idea that no military coup will ever succeed in the future, this is another matter altogether.
Since the coup option has never faded in the minds of the army officers here, analysts and forecasters have to re-open the possibility of the OPH becoming again a precipitating factor in launching one general assault soon. The same thing holds for other countries as well, such as those 40+ countries that saw urban riots took place as protest reactions to ‘grains price hikes’ or GPH. A confluence of OPH-GPH would serve as a very powerful precipitating impetus for waging a coup assault for that matter.
The tall order than is to nip the bud by presenting well-blended policy mixtures and institutional adjustments to the consumers. Incidentally, this is easier said than done. Since the magnitude of OPH is indubitably global, and the causal global factors are so complex, the forced option is to use populist welfare tools such as massive subsidies to food, tax cuts, taking off oil value-added tax or VAT, trimming down import duties, and so on.
Whether such actions will not redound to hyper-inflation and fiscal catastrophe in the short run is something worth observing. In which case, spiraling hyper-inflation can be the precipitating factor, with OPH serving as one factor precipitating it (hyper-inflation). Let us see how the various states, both developed and emerging markets, will respond to the OPH and downward economic spiral of the moment.
Meantime, our jittered state officials will have sleepless nights forthcoming as army insurgents on the loose are busy organizing for their next ‘golpe de estado’ adventure.
[Writ 24 June 2008, Quezon City, MetroManila]
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
RECESSION STAYS, SPIRAL POINTS TO GLOBAL MELTDOWN
Erle Frayne Argonza
The recession stay, the downward global economic spiral will continue for an indefinite time. This is the pattern that we can now see across the globe.
Stock markets have been crashing, going through a freefall for couples of months now. In Manila, the Philippine stock market is down at 2,500+ points as of this morning, or 800 points short of its best performance of 3,300+ late last year. The pattern is true in other stock markets as well.
One thing is clear: this is a global meltdown going on, and the spiral’s turn-around towards more positive gains in the succeeding months. Trillions of dollars have already gone down the drain, loses that may never be recovered again.
Many pockets are getting badly hurt, both from the fund-rich hedge funds and portfolio financiers to ordinary middle class investors. Just about two (2) years ago, everything was bullish in world stocks, most especially in Asia. That situation had since evaporated.
Unfortunately, the harbingers of liberal dogma are still banking on liberalization policies that have proved to be so bankrupt they are, in fact, the very cause of this global meltdown shaping up. The ‘virtual economy’ unleashed by liberalization resulted to looting sprees by fund managers and hedge fund operators, the same money that they partly utilize for corporate social responsibility.
Now the oil price hikes and currency market volatilities have compounded the recession. It’s just mid-2008 by the way, and there’s still the bombing of Iran that we all await as the non-surprise ‘surprise attack’ from neo-cons and Zionist fascists, which will guarantee higher prices for oil and better dollar leveraging power. This will come sooner or later.
Forecasting has been made simpler by anarchic events at this moment. There is no end in sight to the recession, oil prices will still move up, and the recession will lead to a deeper meltdown of the liberal financial-monetary system of casino-style looting by financier operators.
Better do some belt-tightening if you haven’t done this yet. Let’s continue to watch the horrible unfolding of events. Madness and unparalleled greed have shattered the financial-monetary system, the ‘virtual economy’ of predatory financiers.
[Writ 12 June 2008, Quezon City, MetroManila]
The recession stay, the downward global economic spiral will continue for an indefinite time. This is the pattern that we can now see across the globe.
Stock markets have been crashing, going through a freefall for couples of months now. In Manila, the Philippine stock market is down at 2,500+ points as of this morning, or 800 points short of its best performance of 3,300+ late last year. The pattern is true in other stock markets as well.
One thing is clear: this is a global meltdown going on, and the spiral’s turn-around towards more positive gains in the succeeding months. Trillions of dollars have already gone down the drain, loses that may never be recovered again.
Many pockets are getting badly hurt, both from the fund-rich hedge funds and portfolio financiers to ordinary middle class investors. Just about two (2) years ago, everything was bullish in world stocks, most especially in Asia. That situation had since evaporated.
Unfortunately, the harbingers of liberal dogma are still banking on liberalization policies that have proved to be so bankrupt they are, in fact, the very cause of this global meltdown shaping up. The ‘virtual economy’ unleashed by liberalization resulted to looting sprees by fund managers and hedge fund operators, the same money that they partly utilize for corporate social responsibility.
Now the oil price hikes and currency market volatilities have compounded the recession. It’s just mid-2008 by the way, and there’s still the bombing of Iran that we all await as the non-surprise ‘surprise attack’ from neo-cons and Zionist fascists, which will guarantee higher prices for oil and better dollar leveraging power. This will come sooner or later.
Forecasting has been made simpler by anarchic events at this moment. There is no end in sight to the recession, oil prices will still move up, and the recession will lead to a deeper meltdown of the liberal financial-monetary system of casino-style looting by financier operators.
Better do some belt-tightening if you haven’t done this yet. Let’s continue to watch the horrible unfolding of events. Madness and unparalleled greed have shattered the financial-monetary system, the ‘virtual economy’ of predatory financiers.
[Writ 12 June 2008, Quezon City, MetroManila]
Thursday, June 12, 2008
GAS PRICES STAY TO SAVE DOLLAR FROM COLLAPSE
Erle Frayne Argonza
Good afternoon from Manila!
Fellows of Planet Earth, better prepare yourself for the eventualities that have become a fact of life: high gas prices, and high food prices. Let me focus here on high gas prices, although gas and food are very much inter-related.
The good news for those workers and businesses that utilize the US dollar for their transactions is that the dollar will be quite strong for a time. My own forecast is that, over the next twelve (12) months at least, the strong dollar stays. The dollar is used to transact oil, remember, so you’d see its strength sustained for a time as oil price hikes will be the ‘event of the moment’ in the short run.
The dollar was actually already in the downward trend, moving rapidly towards a crash from middle of 2007 onwards. The US recession came, confidence in the dollar was low, and so the currency traders desired so strongly to unload as much dollar as they can before it would go up again.
To make things more hair-raising, the global financiers actually wanted the dollar to get crashed like smashed potato. The financiers’ problem last year was: which currency to substitute for the dollar given that Uncle Sam’s currency remains as the international legal tender, thanks to the Bretton Woods agreement that ensured this role for the same currency.
The options eventually narrowed down to just two: the (a) Euro or the (b) pounds sterling. Some quarters among the financiers were for the pounds sterling, and it seemed this dominated financier mindsets last year, though there were insiders who opted for the euro.
The next question was, granted that a currency option war clear, say that the pounds sterling will be the currency of the moment, will the volume of pounds across the globe suffice to make a sweeping decision to dump the dollar? The volume of dollars across the globe is simply gargantuan, it just isn’t that easy to play God with this currency.
Finally, at the end of the day, with speculators playing around to keep gas prices up, the forced decision was for the dollar to stay after all. This is, in fact, a revenge of Uncle Sam on those predatory forces who simply wish to play God with currencies and destroy national economies without compunction, no matter if many poor lives will be dead in their crashing effects.
On the other hand, Anglo-American oil men are having a field day as speculative trading has shifted to their side for some time, and will be so for at least twelve (12) months. The US dollar’s downward spiral has been put on hold for a time, and the said oil men will be happier by many folds in the months ahead as their purses will bloat to Glad Tidings.
Fellows, accept this as a fact of life: oil prices will be up. Prepare your necessary contingency measures as their effects will be upon you.
[11 June 2008, Quezon City, MetroManila]
Good afternoon from Manila!
Fellows of Planet Earth, better prepare yourself for the eventualities that have become a fact of life: high gas prices, and high food prices. Let me focus here on high gas prices, although gas and food are very much inter-related.
The good news for those workers and businesses that utilize the US dollar for their transactions is that the dollar will be quite strong for a time. My own forecast is that, over the next twelve (12) months at least, the strong dollar stays. The dollar is used to transact oil, remember, so you’d see its strength sustained for a time as oil price hikes will be the ‘event of the moment’ in the short run.
The dollar was actually already in the downward trend, moving rapidly towards a crash from middle of 2007 onwards. The US recession came, confidence in the dollar was low, and so the currency traders desired so strongly to unload as much dollar as they can before it would go up again.
To make things more hair-raising, the global financiers actually wanted the dollar to get crashed like smashed potato. The financiers’ problem last year was: which currency to substitute for the dollar given that Uncle Sam’s currency remains as the international legal tender, thanks to the Bretton Woods agreement that ensured this role for the same currency.
The options eventually narrowed down to just two: the (a) Euro or the (b) pounds sterling. Some quarters among the financiers were for the pounds sterling, and it seemed this dominated financier mindsets last year, though there were insiders who opted for the euro.
The next question was, granted that a currency option war clear, say that the pounds sterling will be the currency of the moment, will the volume of pounds across the globe suffice to make a sweeping decision to dump the dollar? The volume of dollars across the globe is simply gargantuan, it just isn’t that easy to play God with this currency.
Finally, at the end of the day, with speculators playing around to keep gas prices up, the forced decision was for the dollar to stay after all. This is, in fact, a revenge of Uncle Sam on those predatory forces who simply wish to play God with currencies and destroy national economies without compunction, no matter if many poor lives will be dead in their crashing effects.
On the other hand, Anglo-American oil men are having a field day as speculative trading has shifted to their side for some time, and will be so for at least twelve (12) months. The US dollar’s downward spiral has been put on hold for a time, and the said oil men will be happier by many folds in the months ahead as their purses will bloat to Glad Tidings.
Fellows, accept this as a fact of life: oil prices will be up. Prepare your necessary contingency measures as their effects will be upon you.
[11 June 2008, Quezon City, MetroManila]
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)