Finalist-PhilBlogAwards 2010

Finalist-PhilBlogAwards 2010
Finalist for society, politics, history blogs

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Friday, July 30, 2010

GULF STATES: ENFORCERS OF OLIGARCHIC ‘CLASH OF CIVILIZATION’ MADNESS

Erle Frayne D. Argonza


Magandang gabi! Good evening!

Dusk is the mark of the day as I write this note. I wish to continue writing on the theme of Arab gulf states—whether they’re Asian or not. It seems that the ‘twilight of the gods’ scenario has been engulfing the gulf states altogether, a sort of reprieve prior to Armageddon.

For this piece, I’d focus on the observation that the Arab gulf states are the enforcers of the Anglo-European oligarchy’s ‘clash of civilizations’ madness. There has been so much military build-up in the gulf states lately, proof of a preparation for a larger conflagration. (The expenditure level measures by the hundreds of billions of dollars, with KSA leading the hemorrhage of military hardware buying spree.)

East Asia, as we can see, has been operating on the modality of a ‘dialogue of cultures’ expressed as economic, political, and cultural cooperation. The entire region has been the growth driver of the global economy for some time now, and will perform such an optimizer role in the foreseeable future.

Such a trend, however, does not characterize the gulf states. Already filthy rich with their petrodollars, they nonetheless aren’t progenitors of growth driving for the global economy. They grow for the sake of sustaining their own development gains and prepare themselves for the eventual drying up of the oil wells.

Gulf economies’ billionaire are deeply encumbered to the financier operations of the Anglo-European oligarchs who have been using the former as their dummies and/or junior partners. There is hardly any big commercial and industrial concern in the gulf states today that are not immersed in the investment interests of the likes of George Soros & cronies who represent the Who Is Who in the West.

Arab sheikhs style themselves in fact as Western-honed leaders who are no different from their Western counterparts. The difference lies only in the sheikhs’ profession of Islam, an ultra-conservatism that the West allowed to thrive to render the sheikhdoms as buffer regions versus pan-Arab nationalism or pan-Arabism of the Iraq, Syria, Lybia, and Nasserite Egypt.

Pan-Arabism is now rapidly decaying, and so the polarity game has shifted to Shiite Islam as the key enemy in lieu of the former. The Arab kings and sheikhs are surely having a great time nurturing hatreds versus the ayatollahs of Persia whom they demonize with deep disdain.

Back home, the sheikhdoms have to neutralize their homegrown jihadist movements led by the Al Qaida. While the home enemy grows in size and intensity of terror, tension grows as the sheikhs can’t help on anticipating the attacks by the revolutionary guards of Persia, attacks that may be accompanied by limited nuclear weaponry.

The situation in the gulf region had pushed the sheikhs into a toxic alliance with the Zionists who are the other leg in the beachhead of the Anglo-European oligarchy in regaining control of the entire Western Asia. A loose Zionist-Sunni (gulf states’ ecclesial religion) alliance has been in formation since couples of years back yet, to recall.

In my own analysis, it is now too late to see the possibility of the sheikhs dis-engaging from their active participation in the polarity game of the West’s oligarchy. The sheikhs and Arab billionaires are an organic part of that oligarchy while they feign difference via Sunni wahabism or equivalents. A superficial difference that is, to note.

The clock now ticks for the gulf states, an Armageddon clock that could unleash the forces of destruction in the region. And such a clock will continue to tick, unless a paradigm shift will be initiated by the sheikhs & Arab billionaires which is nauseatingly impossible an eventuality at this moment.

[Philippines, 22 July 2010]

[See: IKONOKLAST: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com,
UNLADTAU: http://unladtau.wordpress.com,
COSMICBUHAY: http://cosmicbuhay.blogspot.com,
BRIGHTWORLD: http://erlefraynebrightworld.wordpress.com, ARTBLOG: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com,
ARGONZAPOEM: http://argonzapoem.blogspot.com]

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

ARAB GULF STATES: HOW ASIAN?

Erle Frayne D. Argonza


It’s now past 8 p.m. as I write this piece inside my studio apartment, and my writing is currently accompanied by chill music from Brazil. For this piece let me toss the query: how Asian could the Arab gulf states be?

To begin my reflections, let me share to you a portion of my family history. My mother, a dietician/health professional, decidedly joined the fray of the ‘gulf state fever’ in the early 80s by seeking work in Saudi Arabia’s hospitals. For four (4) years did she work in the kingdom that is so endeared to many overseas Filipinos like her, until she departed for a new destination (USA where she retired).

When she started working there, her purses began to balloon quickly just as Arabia’s oil pumps were gushing out colossal petrodollars like limitless boons from heaven. She gleefully told us of the fat overtime pays she and her staff received, thus enabling her to send us in the Philippines—then a depression-struck ‘sick man of Asia’—quanta of dinars to quaff our thirst for back-up money.

That was the trend, until around 1984 when patterns suddenly changed. Mother began to complain of working overtime with no extra (overtime) compensation, and until 1986 when she quit Arabia for America no more extra boons came via the overtime pay. Something awefully wrong was going on in the gulf states and not just in Saudi Arabia, this was for sure.

The gulf states as a whole comprised a region that was considerably a growth driver of the global economy for a time until approximately the mid-1980s. At that time, it had so much petrodollars stashed in Western banks and investment houses that it needed for its internal growth, but such growth was choked up by fluctuations in the oil demand globally.

Before long, Asia’s ‘dragons’ and ‘tiger economies’ caught up with the gulf states. As the former kept surging upwards, the latter fluctuated between stagnation and paltry growth. India and emerging markets of Asia were recently added to the list of growth drivers of the world, while the gulf states are mired in a rather delusional self-image of growth driver that is more a thing of the past.

The word ‘Asia’ today has become synonymous with ‘growth driver’. But let it be clarified that the gulf states just don’t fit well into this growth category. For sure, their diversification of dynamic sectors from oil to manufacturing, infrastructures and services have paid quite fatly for them but only for them and not for the planet as a whole.

The gulf states are now quite prepared for the eventuality of drying up of its oil reserves. They are likewise in sync with the rise of mega-cities that the dragons, tigers and emerging markets have began snowballing, capped by prestige projects of towering buildings notably the Taipei 101 and Petronas towers, with Burj Dubai leading the way for the former. But the same states’ return to the halcyon days of being a global driver is simply a thing of the past.

Dubai is a case in point of a mega-city that is too over-ambitious in its goal to become the financial center of Asia. It embarked on gigantic projects totaling past the $3 Trillion mark from circa 2005 through 2015, aimed at eventually shoring up its new image as a financial center. As the giant commercial complexes were done, the greater problem was who would be their end-users? Without end-users, no pay-ups for expenses used to fund the projects will accrue to the coffers.

Honestly, I will still need to be convinced that gulf states are truly Asian in their growth propulsion. I see more of the hands of Euro-oligarchs such as George Soros & cronies in building those gigantic projects there, with the Arab investors serving as mere junior partners if not dummies in a growth game with dubious motives.

Gulf states are playing the game of the ‘virtual economy’ or ‘casino economy’ and that is far from being Asian. In contrast, the dragons, tigers and emerging markets are engaged in the ‘real economy’ of manufacturing, infrastructures, agriculture, and transport industries, backed by solid science & technology innovations, rendering them the label of ‘truly’ Asian.

If there is any urgent message I’d send to the said Arab state, it is this one: dis-engage willfully from the encumbrances with Europe’s financier oligarchy, reverse ‘virtual economy’ policies, and move back to the ‘real economy’. With that probably and hopefully the same region will regain its former esteemed image as a growth driver of the global economy, a true Asian region indeed.

[Philippines, 21 July 2010]

[See: IKONOKLAST: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com,
UNLADTAU: http://unladtau.wordpress.com,
COSMICBUHAY: http://cosmicbuhay.blogspot.com,
BRIGHTWORLD: http://erlefraynebrightworld.wordpress.com, ARTBLOG: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com,
ARGONZAPOEM: http://argonzapoem.blogspot.com]

Monday, July 26, 2010

BRAZIL JETTISONS ECONOMICALLY: KUDOS, SUSTAIN & LEAD!

Erle Frayne D. Argonza


Brazil is now clearly leading the growth path of the entire South America, and this is a most welcome news. I am truly impressed by the developments down south that Brazil had led, and so I extend my kudos to the citizens and development stakeholders of Brazil.

Under the able stewardship of the very popular president Lula, the growth policies of the country were strengthened and sustained. The added feature is that, under a socialist regime, Brazil’s social policy had been further stressed and strengthened, with the hopeful gains of growth distributed more equitably to the poor folks of the cities and countrysides.

As we should all realize, South America isn’t exactly following a growth trend akin to East Asia’s. While Asia generally surges upwards, breathing new life to the global economy, that of South America’s could only count on specific countries (not general trend) jettisoning their ways further upwards. Brazil, Argentina, Chile are the most concrete success stories, while Mexico burns in the embers of an anti-drug war (Mexico sputters in its role as a growth driver).

Among all regions down south (America), it seems that the Brazil-Mercosur promises the greatest hope for the continent. It remains to be seen though how far this can be sustained. Contrast this to Asia, where three regions—Northeast Asia (China-Korea), Southeast Asia (ASEAN), and South Asia (India-led)—are acting as a grand chorale that enchants and enthralls the global economy as a whole.

Brazil, as an emerging market, clearly leads the pack in the whole of the continent, and being large enough by itself, it can jettison ahead and be the equivalent of China-India-ASEAN of the south. Its ‘real economy’ is the base of its growth that enables it to veer away from the anarchic and destructive ‘virtual economy’ policies up north (America).

Such an upward surge should move on till the aerospace program of Brazil will clearly be established as solid rock, thus ensuring the country’s entry as a top producer of affordable satellites for diverse end-users. It can go on and establish, in 25 years’ time, active metallurgical R&D in other planets such as Mars and Jupiter that can be alternative sources of metals for our own planet.

Also, Brazil better lead in creating a continental-looping railway that can accelerate development of the other regions, quicken the movement of skilled peoples and information across borders, and magnify continental trade by many folds. Likewise should Brazil lead in cyber-looping the continent with state-of-the-art infotech cables like what the East is now ambitiously embarking on.

Likewise should Brazil lead in massive energy investments, with clean technologies leading the way. Incidentally, biofuels and other clean energies are now surging upwards in the emerging market, with a policy environment in place that qualitatively is as sterling as East Asia’s (the Philippines has one such policy environment now well built up).

On the other hand, Brazil should better go slow in taming the Amazons with massive energy projects that could sadly kill the indigenous cultures that are among the country’s top endowments. Furthermore, in no way should the Amazon jungles’ diverse species be terminated for the sake of producing power, mineral resources, timber, and heavy industries for the country and its trading partners.

The world is watching Brazil mutate into a gigantic pillar of the global economy, we in Asia are surely watching with awe, and such a rise of a giant will ensure that the imperialist power up north will tone down its hegemonic attitudes towards the southern continent in the short run. The USA should better choose the path of cooperation with the south if it desires to remain relevant at all, as its own economy slides down a 3rd world level notwithstanding the continuous ‘virtual economy’ predation of its industries, agriculture, and infrastructures.

Surging upwards under a series of conscienticized and enlightened leaders, Brazil will continue to come on as sweet and enchanting as samba and bossa nova. To celebrate Brazil’s victories, we better chill out with Brazilian music & dance while we relish Brazilian cuisine in a spirit of peace and cooperation worldwide.

[Philippines, 21 July 2010]

[See: IKONOKLAST: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com,
UNLADTAU: http://unladtau.wordpress.com,
COSMICBUHAY: http://cosmicbuhay.blogspot.com,
BRIGHTWORLD: http://erlefraynebrightworld.wordpress.com, ARTBLOG: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com,
ARGONZAPOEM: http://argonzapoem.blogspot.com]

Friday, July 23, 2010

EUROPE & AMERICA ON DOWNWARD SLIDE TO 3RD WORLD ECONOMIES

Erle Frayne D. Argonza


Magandang gabi! Good evening!

It’s dusk time as I write, and this dusk at a time of intensifying monsoon rains seems to bode images of a grim future for the West at large. The European Union or EU members and the USA, the gigantic pillars of the global economy, are particularly in dire straits as they have entered the zone of flat growth and perpetual recession.

As already tackled by me in diverse articles, the East is surging forward bringing life to the global economy as a whole. In contrast, the West is spiraling downwards, and the strategies their stakeholders are putting into place to arrest the downslide are at best palliative. As the East continues to surge upward, the West continues to stagnate and decay.

After World War II, both Europe and America embarked on massive infrastructures and heated industrialization that saw both economies dominating the global economy’s wealth production. The result of that was an OECD producing 60% of Gross World Product or GWP for some decades (today that’s down to 40% of GWP and will still go down).

That was the situation back then. By the 1990s, the situation had been badly reversed as a result of liberal economic policies instituted in the previous decade (80s). The rise of a ‘virtual economy’ dominated by predatory finance was instrumental in the West’s massive de-industrialization, decay of relatively unattended infrastructures, decline in science & technology research, and neglect of the transport sector (only Japan & Germany were actively pursuing maglev railways).

By the early 1990s yet, certain experts among economists and sociologists in America began echoing alarming notes about the possible downslide of the USA into a 3rd world country should the economic decay, such as that of relatively unattended infrastructures, be allowed to continue till past 2010s.

In the late 1990s, my own circle of political economists in Manila (Sunday Kapihan/Independent Review) saw such a possibility ourselves as we consolidated the data made available to us thanks to the internet. By 1998 all fellows of our circle were convinced of the catastrophic direction that the USA and Europe were plunging themselves into, which could begin with a depression past 2005 and a thirdworldization by 2010s (both have been hit by recession this decade as a matter of fact).

When Katrina struck the USA and when those floods struck Europe just a few years back, and the same free market policies stubbornly remained in place, I knew the downslide would turn out to be irreversible. The fate of New Orleans, with its residents lining up for food akin to a depressed city, revealed an appallingly decayed 3rd world city inside the USA which, to my mind, is but a fractional tip of a gigantic iceberg that are America’s decaying cities on the way to 3rd world infamy.

If, for instance, just about 55% of the top 700 cities of the USA will be so badly decayed by 2015 and be declared as 3rd world or ‘developing cities’, then we know more or less that America had catastrophically seen its worst state. With 97% of U.S. population living in cities (urban), likewise will the whole of the USA be declared as a ‘developing economy’ as early as 2015.

That is, again, if the destructive ‘virtual economy’ policies will not be taken down and reversed sweepingly. As I’ve declared in previous articles before (when Obama was still campaigning for the presidency), America must quickly return to a New Deal-type policy regime: interventionist, with great stress on revivifying infrastructures, revitalizing transport R&D (railways, shipping, etc), upscaling science & technology investments (including rockets), returning heavy industries (revive steel and many dead manufactures), and ensuring agricultural productivity.

Europe is not far behind such near-catastrophic downslide of the USA, just to remind our friends in Europe and the globe. Decisively institute interventionist policies in the continent, regulate the financial-banking sectors (criminalize predatory finance), and revivify social policy that were hallmarks of a once strong and mighty European economy.

And there’s no better time to act then now. Failure to act soon, by stubbornly instituting the palliatives (e.g. bailing out failing big banks, semi-regulating stock exchange), will be the best sure-fire formula to see a rapid thirdworldization of the West.

Before long, some messianic mad leaders in both continents would be drum-beating their being “stubbed behind the back” and generate new Hitlers and Bonapartes in their backyards. Act now, Western peoples, to avoid this eventuality from ever taking place at all.

[Philippines, 21 July 2010]


[See: IKONOKLAST: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com,
UNLADTAU: http://unladtau.wordpress.com,
COSMICBUHAY: http://cosmicbuhay.blogspot.com,
BRIGHTWORLD: http://erlefraynebrightworld.wordpress.com, ARTBLOG: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com,
ARGONZAPOEM: http://argonzapoem.blogspot.com]

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

PUNISH BUSH & NEO-CONS FOR WAR CRIMES!

Erle Frayne D. Argonza


A global Establishment has already galvanized before us, just as the global order had been established by the capitalist oligarchy that constitutes this Establishment. The same Establishment has been defining for us who should be punished for war crimes and who should not, and this is truly bothersome for us global citizens.

The likes of Bush, both father and son, who espoused hawkish policies of war and attrition in the guise of America’s role as global policeman, are indubitably war criminals. Yet they roam the world so freely like the wildest monsters that call the shots in a jungle.

I will never forget the Bush father & son, as the war policies they hatched emboldened the hawkish policies of the army of my own country, an army that is a compliant clone of the Pentagon up North. Not only did the peoples of Iraq, Afghanistan, Palestine, and countries affected by their war policies suffer miserably, my very own Muslim compatriots and countryside folks suffer from the war policies of the neo-cons clone army here.

With displeasure I regard those actuations of Western liberals who condemn the war crimes of the leaders of Sudan and Serbia but who are blind to the very war crimes of the hawkish leaders of their hegemonic countries. For if they indeed are sincere with condemning such war crimes of their leaders, they should by now be prospering in the cases they file at the International Criminal Court versus such criminals.

One would say, “hey the ICC is funded by Soros & cronies, so how can the ICC ever punish the likes of Bush father & son and crony neo-cons who are their colleagues in the global Establishment?” True indeed, the Establishment funds the ICC, and it may prove futile to file cases against their members.

Be that as it may, why don’t the West’s liberals and New Left advocates push through with the filing of war crimes just the same? Whether they file it at the ICC or in their own home countries, the challenge of the day is for such cases to be filed most urgently.

Monsters that were responsible for the destruction of nations and genocidal deaths to millions of people, such as what the Bush & crony neo-cons have factually committed, shouldn’t be allowed to roam freely around the planet.

Failure to file such cases can be misconstrued by us Eastern observers as an attempt of White liberals and their colored humanoid clones to cover up for their Establishment sponsors. So to speak, an instance of White intellectual prostitutes paid to kowtow to their own kind, or paid dogs of Establishment masters who can rock the boats provided that they don’t touch their masters who feed them lusciously.

The cycle of mass terminations by the likes of Bush & neo-cons have to cease soon enough. And the Establishment war criminals should be made to pay dearly for their crimes. Just exactly when will such a payment of crime happen, if in case it would happen at all?

[Philippines, 13 July 2010]

[See: IKONOKLAST: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com,
UNLADTAU: http://unladtau.wordpress.com,
COSMICBUHAY: http://cosmicbuhay.blogspot.com,
BRIGHTWORLD: http://erlefraynebrightworld.wordpress.com, ARTBLOG: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com,
ARGONZAPOEM: http://argonzapoem.blogspot.com]

Sunday, July 18, 2010

WEST MARKETS SHRINK, ASIANS’ RISE AND OVERTAKE WEST SOON

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Good evening from the Pearl of the Orient!

The International Monetary Fund or IMF has been quite bullish lately about Asian growth. It had forecast East Asia’s average growth at past 7% for this year, and shares an equally positive growth trend for RP at 5.5%-6%. Just what could be the implications of the growth trends on the global economy and the West?

As Asia expands, the West (Europe, USA, Canada, Japan) contracts. The trend will not change much over the next five (5) years, so let’s see where the East and West are headed for in the foreseeable future.

In early 2008 yet, the economists and financial analysts of the West (or North) were of the opinion that the technological cutting edge of the West was already breached by Asia by the end of 2007 yet. Remember that 2007 was the beginning of a new cycle of recession for the West which began in the USA with the implosion of the realty bubble.

Given that the Western economies are flat on their back growth-wise, and their toxic bubble economies have given them only virtual economy results (read: inflated values not based on real production but on speculation), there is ample reason to forecast that they will be mired in problems of saving their ailing banks, financial-monetary systems, and providing sovereign guarantees to their capitalists at the expense of taxpayers and infusing investments in the physical economy. This is now matter of fact, as we can clearly see.

Western economies have suffered from the ill effects of continuous de-industrialization for decades, of being remiss in their own infrastructures (USA seems to be the worst in infrastructure decay), and deteriorating investments in science & technology. From being a producer economy, Western economy generally has become a parasitical ‘eater economy’ that stands on no clear foundation other than financial quicksand.

In contrast, the Eastern economies have steadily built their strategic industries across the decades, reinforced their infrastructure expenditures and projects, and invested in science & technology. The Eastern economy generally has therefore been role-playing as ‘producer economy’ worth the emulation of other developing economies worldwide.

Result: by 2007, at the downspin year of a recessionary West, the East overtook the West in terms of cutting-edge technologies. To qualify, the technologies we refer to are those life-inducing technologies, not those death & destruction technologies that the West has clear edge till these days.

I still remember what my nationalist colleagues in the Sunday Kapihan that we then held every Sunday at the Sulo Hotel in Manila: the West knows nothing but perfect its Armaments. Dr. Emmanuel Yap, an economist who finished his PhD at Harvard University, was the most vocal about that emphasis on the death & destruction focus of Western innovations.

To continue, the added forecast that I’d share at this moment is this: from the years 2007 through 2015, Western markets will contract by at least 30%. That means their own consuming public will spend less and less across a 9-year stretch, until the consumption pattern will settle down by 2016 or so. Real GDP (gross domestic product) will radically decline during the period, shrinking by as much as 30%-40% contrasted to their 2006 levels (the last of the best years of the West).

In contrast, the Eastern markets will expand by at least 100% during the period. The giants China and India will go farther than that, with China expanding by as much as 200% during the same period. That means the middle income earners in the East will continue to rise by the year and consume more products by the year, even travel more overseas year by year.

Result: China will clearly overtake the shrunken economies of EU and USA by end of 2015. India may follow suit, at around the years 2020-2025. The last would be ASEAN, which will overtake the West by 2025-2030 period.

Once a region overtakes others technology-wise, it will just be a matter of time before the same innovator region will overtake the rest wealth-wise. Technologies—physical technologies, biotechnologies, social technologies, medical technologies—are precisely the cutting edge practices that will enable one region to overtake others across the globe.

The bad news for the West is this: if their own states and markets will fail to solve their ailing problems in infrastructures and reverse de-industrialization, they will pathetically go down as 3rd world or ‘developing economies’ past 2020. No less than their own economists warned of this possibility in the early 1990s yet, and sadly no one paid attention to them in their own backyards. City after city in the USA and EU will immerse in urban decay, becoming 3rd world cities in the process.

My mother just retired from New York where she migrated since the 80s yet. She decided to come home back to the Philippines, and visited the Libis & Cubao areas of Quezon City/Manila suburb pronto upon her arrival. She was so deeply enchanted by the esthetic beauty of the architectures and planning in those mixed land use zones, while she complained of the dilapidated buildings and nauseating smells of cinema theatres in downtown Manhattan.

Those observations are signs of the times indeed. In just a year from now, the Pagcor City will rise in Manila, housing the world’s tallest tower. Burj Dubai, Petronas Twin Towers, and Taipei 101 are already similar hallmarks in other Asian cities, signifying the power shift from East to West.

The message is hereby brought to the West’s peoples: shift back from virtual reality to physical reality, from the virtual economy to the real economy. We Asians will help you along the way, as we’ve already been doing through our colossal treasuries investments, direct foreign investments, and quality Asian expatriates in your backyards that have been saving your collapsing economies from rapid decay.


[Philippines, 13 July 2012]

[See: IKONOKLAST: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com,
UNLADTAU: http://unladtau.wordpress.com,
COSMICBUHAY: http://cosmicbuhay.blogspot.com,
BRIGHTWORLD: http://erlefraynebrightworld.wordpress.com, ARTBLOG: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com,
ARGONZAPOEM: http://argonzapoem.blogspot.com]

Friday, July 16, 2010

APPRECIATING PARK CHUNG HEE

Erle Frayne D. Argonza


Magandang araw! Good day!

For so long now did I harbor an admiration for certain leaders of the South, one of whom is the late Park Chung Hee of South Korea. Among the most admirable of developmentalist Asian leaders, I nurtured wishful thoughts that hopefully we can have the equivalent of Park Chung Hee for many developing economies so as to accelerate the graduation towards prosperity.

His governance style was authoritarian, which I surmise worked well for demonstrating political will in pushing through reform programs and the industrialization of his poor country. I am no dogmatist who contends that democracy is the only true best governance modality, though to my mind this is the most fit for my country the Philippines that has failed in attaining a mature developed economy via the martial law route.

South Korea was so poor as its economy was wrecked by two great wars, World War II and the Korean civil war. Right after the truce with the North, South Korea experienced the additional misfortune of selecting a corrupt leadership under Shingman Rhee which proved costly to the fledgeling nation.

Pushing through first of all with agrarian reform, by enticing the chaebols (big landlords) to divest in land and invest instead in manufacturing concerns, just couldn’t make a headway under that corrupt regime. And so it has to take the iron hands of a developmentalist authoritarian regime, under President Park, to rectify the malady and propel South Korea towards industrialization.

President Park thus enticed the chaebols to establish the strategic or heavy industries of the nation, with the state providing sovereign guarantees to their installation. The caveat was: the state will help the chaebols enable their newly owned industries and accumulate gains, but in no way should they engage in investments outside of Korea.

In an interview before with Dr. Antonio Arrizabal, former science & technology secretary and foremost expert on steel industry in the Philippines, he revealed that Park was forewarned by the Americans not to push through with the heavy industries. The first salvo of retaliatory measure was the American elites was the blockage of financing for the big projects.

Unwavering in his decision to pursue heavy industrialization, including the installation of steel and shipbuilding industries, President Park instead diversified the financing source. He turned to Japan for alternative financing, which the latter acceded to. The rise of Pohang Steel Works (once the world’s biggest steel producer) and Hyundai are clear testaments of the success of the industrialization program under the stewardship of President Park.

Very clearly, Park pursued a nationalist economic development policy regime for his country, using interventionist measures as well as capital controls. As shown by the experiences of other countries that have industrialized, state intervention and capital controls were necessary measures to propel their respective countries to industrial prosperity. Attendant social policies led to the creation of a huge middle class in the same countries, thus ensuring a steady and strong domestic market (consumption) for the manufactured goods of the country.

Park knew his economic lessons very well, and he coupled his vision with the determination and zeal to build a prosperous South Korea and a huge domestic market in the long run. And he was undaunted by external threats by the main imperialist power, the USA, of retaliatory attacks for establishing industries that would later compete with America’s and Western powers’ articles of manufactures.

For his deep patriotism and nationalism, he lost his life eventually. Inside the Korean government was a puppet of the Americans—the very chief of the Korean intelligence body (KCIA)—who snuffed off President Park’s life with a bullet.

I wish that the young Koreans and youth across the world today, who would become leaders in their own countries some day, would re-study the exemplar from Asia in the person of Park Chung Hee. No matter what threats may come from vested interests aimed at retarding the development of their respective country, they should go ahead just the same and stand pat on their wise judgement and decision to pursue highly ambitious yet doable and noble goals for their country.

Be ready to become martyrs for the cause of liberating your own country and people from poverty. For after you’re gone, there will be other patriots who will carry own your cause and bring your sublime vision to fruition.

[Philippines, 10 July 2010]


[See: IKONOKLAST: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com,
UNLADTAU: http://unladtau.wordpress.com,
COSMICBUHAY: http://cosmicbuhay.blogspot.com,
BRIGHTWORLD: http://erlefraynebrightworld.wordpress.com, ARTBLOG: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com,
ARGONZAPOEM: http://argonzapoem.blogspot.com]

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

RP’S FOREX RESERVES AT ALL-TIME HIGH

Erle Frayne D. Argonza


Magandang gabi! Good evening!

It’s almost bedtime as I write this piece. I am currently listening to world music as I keep my fingers busy on my laptop, even as I am in a celebratory or positive mood after a nice productive day.

Let me genuflect on the reported all-time high gross international reserves or GIR by our central bank here. The latest figure is $48.8 Billion, which is sufficient to purchase ten (10) months worth of imports or so. The GIR has been largely shored up by upscaling exports and continuing high inflows of overseas remittances.

Such a figure would correct my earlier claim of $45 Billion+ in my previous essays on RP development updates. The errata was unintended, as I do have some memory slips sometimes (my figure is applicable to early 2009 yet).

I do appreciate very well the level of GIR of my beloved Philippines. We have always been financially struggling due to our perennial low forex for over five (5) decades since after our 1946 independence (from the USA’s colonial yoke). GIR levels have since been moving up at the turn of the century and millennium, indicative of a relatively healthy macro-economy that can withstand new recessionary rounds to come.

The country’s GIR is in keeping with the east Asian region’s healthy levels of GIR as a whole. This is good news altogether. Contrast our situation with those of the western countries’ more so the USA whose GIR can buy less than a month worth of imports or so.

The only cautionary note that I can make about the matter is that our GIR is largely made up of US dollars. An unsolicited advice to our monetary authorities is for us to adopt a ‘basket of currencies’ policy for our GIR.

The over-concentration on the dollar will make our monetary situation burn in the short-run should the forecast decline of the dollar take place in the financial markets. East Asia should by now carve out contingency measures to deal with the massive dumping of dollars that can happen in case that financial volatilities will lead to the forecast event.

Just the same, let me toast a glass of wine to my compatriots, both overseas and domestic Pinoys, for the latest feat of GIR ascent.

[Philippines, 09 July 2010]

[See: IKONOKLAST: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com,
UNLADTAU: http://unladtau.wordpress.com,
COSMICBUHAY: http://cosmicbuhay.blogspot.com,
BRIGHTWORLD: http://erlefraynebrightworld.wordpress.com, ARTBLOG: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com,
ARGONZAPOEM: http://argonzapoem.blogspot.com]

Monday, July 12, 2010

WAR RUMBLINGS IN KOREA ARE A DUD!

Erle Frayne D. Argonza


As we get filled electrified with the euphoria of the world soccer games, the Koreans’ dread over a possible war among brothers has been on the uptrend. Let’s just hope that the world cup season has relaxed the rather tense nerves of the Koreans and Japanese as well who rabidly dread Bombs from North Korea.

In case that one isn’t familiar with the realpolitik of the intra-Korean conflict (between Northern and Southern sibling Koreans), the situation has been markedly tense owing to the hawkish attitude of the leaders up North. The hardliners (extremists) have been on the initiative there, owing to the hardline attitude of America towards them during the Bush years.

Getting back the Northern hardliners to relax their warmongering is now a ‘too-late-the-hero’ situation. Not even if America’s leadership had swung from hardliner to moderate after the demise of the Republicans and the neo-conservatives with Obama’s installation to power.

On the other hand, to contend that the North’s hardliners would choose to declare war for mere irrational justification hardly merits our attention. The actuations of the North, no matter if they appear as warmongering (such as the sinking of a South Korean battle ship), is largely intended to gain points in the bargaining tables.

The hardliners wish to gain mileage, and that mileage doesn’t necessarily mean invasion mileage measured in terms of square miles of Japan and South Korea that they can occupy. That’s utter non-sense.

The mileages expected are: (a) media/information points, for being continuously projected in international news; (b) millions of dollars of cash, paid by wealthy neighbors & America for keeping the military machine well oiled and for buying some foods & medicines for poor folks; and, (c) testing the international waters for some possible relaxation of bellicose attitudes by other states (via the UN).

It’s like a North bulldog barked so loud and threatened to bite, with some of its saliva reaching the South and the seas. But the dog won’t bite, rest assured.

The agenda of Korean unification is still the most palatable option for both Koreas, and I’m sure the North’s leaders are ever watchful of cracks in the iron parchment that can yield them greater leverages in the unification efforts. They have the Bomb with them, while the South has the Bread.

Both parties have the leveraging incentives to bargain on a quid pro quo basis, just to stress the point matter-of-factly. It is the external powers that are bent on muddling the political waters and searching for ways for the conflict to escalate, so that the Anglo-European financiers can again gain colossal trillions worth of looted monies in the derivatives and portfolio markets on account of the unstable conditions in the Koreas.

And it seems the Japanese are the ones most vulnerable to the machinations of the Western financier oligarchs. If a North Korea-Japan war will shape up so suddenly, I will not find the event as surprising at all. Such a scenario is what the financier oligarchs wish and no less, blame the Japanese for choosing to be blind to such dirty machinations.

So, fellows on Earth, let’s keep our calm and trust the rational minds in the Koreas to solve their problems through their own efforts. Let’s trust the Koreans they can be civil towards each other till their own unification will materialize.

[Philippines, 05 July 2010]

[See: IKONOKLAST: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com,
UNLADTAU: http://unladtau.wordpress.com,
COSMICBUHAY: http://cosmicbuhay.blogspot.com,
BRIGHTWORLD: http://erlefraynebrightworld.wordpress.com, ARTBLOG: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com,
ARGONZAPOEM: http://argonzapoem.blogspot.com]

Sunday, July 11, 2010

DEVELOPING WORLDS’ WORLD CUP STAKES

Erle Frayne D. Argonza


Happy World Cup Season to everyone!

The entire planet is glued on the world soccer games at this moment, indicating an ever growing sense of one family sort of planet. We may all experience both euphoria and pain while we watch the events, but one thing is sure about the matter: the World Cup is a banner event that can rally our planetary citizens towards peace and cooperation.

That the present world cup season was held in South Africa, a country of the South (it used to be North when it was White-dominated), signals what could be an emerging phenomenon: of world games being held for consecutive times in the South states. Just like the Olympics, there may never be World Cup up North again or later.

I am myself highly appreciative of the holding of the games in South Africa, enchanted as I am with the magnificent architectural designs of the games’ venues. An unsolicited advice would go for the organizers of the games: “let’s have some more games held in South Africa in the future to maximize the use of those marvelous stadium facilities.”

And, I wish that my own country, the Philippines, can catch up on the soccer fever. We seem to be stuck up here with the love for basketball, thanks but no thanks to our colonization by the U.S.A., which explains the older generations’ luke warm attitude towards the World Cup.

I’m happy at least that the youth of my country has been catching up on the World Soccer hysterics. Around my neighborhood area in the suburban boondocks, soccer watchers scream to the highest heavens at wee hours as a cathartic way of appreciating the games.

How about my continent Asia? Where goes my fellow Asians after the games? How far can Asia forge ahead strong teams that can reach the final rounds at least? Of course, the better it is that at least one Asian team that will “bring home the bacon.” We Asians just can’t be let down by sobs and blues over our poor performing teams, can we?

Overall ratings for developing countries remain to be seen yet. Brazil was already badly mauled as of the latest rounds versus the North countries (trounced by the Dutch). But Brazil has consistently shown enormous firepower in soccer, ditto for its neighbor Argentina.

We peoples of the South can proudly say that, no matter how sluggish our development efforts have been, we can at least out-perform the North soccer-wise. Soccer is an instance where we’re able to ‘level the playing field’ and humiliate neo-Nazi skinheads for misplaced White supremacist arrogance.

The World Cup has been an excellent platform for us peoples of the South to regain our damaged self-esteem—damaged by 500 years of Northern imperialism and enslavement—and recoup lost grace. Instead of avenging our impoverishment by declaring a world war versus our Northern ex-enslavers, let us forge stronger World Soccer teams and overpower them in the playing fields.

What say you, fellows of the South? friends from the North?

[Philippines, 05 July 2010]

[See: IKONOKLAST: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com,
UNLADTAU: http://unladtau.wordpress.com,
COSMICBUHAY: http://cosmicbuhay.blogspot.com,
BRIGHTWORLD: http://erlefraynebrightworld.wordpress.com, ARTBLOG: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com,
ARGONZAPOEM: http://argonzapoem.blogspot.com]

Sunday, July 04, 2010

LUISITA ESTATE, HACIENDAS: ANACHRONISM IN POST-INDUSTRIALIZING PHILIPPINES

Erle Frayne D. Argonza


Magandang araw! Good day!

It’s the 1st of July, the first day of official reporting by the newly elected political leaders of the country led by President Benigno ‘Noynoy’ Aquino III. Riding astride the air of optimism induced by the new leadership, let me say more notes then about my homeland.

Let me shift to landlordism as this phenomenon seems to have remained unscathed by the ‘scorched earth’ flames of modernization and post-industrial growth. Our newly elected president here, ‘Noynoy’ Aquino, is a scion of the oligarchic family of Cojuancos and is an heir to the 11,000-hectare Luisita Estate in Tarlac province.

I still recall that in the late 1990s, as a graduate student of development studies in De La Salle University-Manila, I underwent the course on constitutionalism and development. I tasked myself to review the constitutions of thirty-five (35) countries, with the aim of unearthing and extracting the theme of agrarian reform from them.

To my amazement, most of the countries I researched on, including Taiwan, Korea, and many developing states, clearly emblazoned in their national charter the theme of agrarian reform. The impeccable intention was to declare land reform as a determinative development policy. The landlords should be enticed to divest from their rural estates and channel their new investments to birthing strategic industries.

I did write a paper on the topic, which my professor, Dr. Wilfrido Villacorta (former undersecretary of ASEAN, delegate to the 1986 Constitutional Convention), appreciated very well. The research also enlightened me more about the urgency of decisively implementing agrarian reform in the Philippines that barely made it to the passing mark of successful land reform programs.

Almost a quarter of a century after the new charter was signed and ratified by our citizens, and after the consequent legislation of the Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Law, many large feudal estates still abound. They seem to remain untouched by the law, as if they are autonomous mini-states in a nation that is rapidly urbanizing along mixed industrial and service economy growth trajectory.

Let’s take the case of the Luisita estate. In 2006 yet, the Agrarian Reform department decided that a total of 6,453 of Luisita should be apportioned to the farmworkers. Unfortunately, the Supreme Court blocked the implementation of the decision as it issued a Temporary Restraining Order or TRO that stopped the implementation. A TRO should be in effect only for a maximum of 30 days, yet years have elapsed and it is still in place.

Other large estates are similarly situated as Luisita. For instance, there are the Yulo estate in Laguna and the Pedro Roxas estate in Batangas. I still recall that way back in 1998, I was among consultants who helped agrarian reform beneficiaries of a 500-hectare piece of Roxas estate (out of total 30,000 hectares) in their capacity-building and productivity boosting. The same beneficiaries asked me if I knew anybody from the Agoncillo clan that owned a total of 30,000 hectares of estates…

There are more such huge estates to count. And truly, I am overwhelmed by their gargantuan sizes that are enough to build huge mega-cities such as Singapore or Manila. I could almost puke at the mere mention of their names, and puke much more when I learn about their vast sizes and the slave-driving management styles of their owners that have led to appalling living conditions for the farmworkers.

RP’s population was 66% urban and 34% rural as of end of 2009. Urban population is moving up by 2% every year, while rural population is moving down by the same figure. By 2016, the next presidential election year, urban population will already be at least 80% urban and rural population down to 20%. What are haciendas for in an urban Philippines, one may ask.

Furthermore, RP’s labor force is now past 50% service sector and 15% industrial sector, with barely 34% left to fend for our farms and fisheries. Agriculture now contributes to merely 15% of the GDP, while services comprises a whopping 60% or so (the rest is industries). Tourism, which forms past 10% of GDP today, will most likely surpass agriculture as a contributor to national income by 2016.

Now that brings us back to the question: what are feudal estates doing in an urban-to-suburban Philippines with a rapidly post-industrializing economy? Strange anachronism! All we need to do is follow the footsteps of Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and China to realize that such estates must be released from feudal yokes so as to carve out a win-win growth path between the small planters and their former overlords-turned-entrepreneurs.

When I registered my vote for the ratification of the charter in 1986, I already made up my mind to see that all such estates be transformed to high productivity enclaves beginning with their subjection to the reform program. All the landlords should quickly divest from such landholdings and move their investments in industries and services.

I stand pat on that decision, and will be on standby to help out those agrarian beneficiaries who seek professional help for improving their farm production and quality of life. And I welcome a Philippines that will someday move towards the space age, thanks for a willful departure from an anachronistic feudalism of past dark ages.

[Philippines, 01 July 2010]

[See: IKONOKLAST: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com,
UNLADTAU: http://unladtau.wordpress.com,
COSMICBUHAY: http://cosmicbuhay.blogspot.com,
BRIGHTWORLD: http://erlefraynebrightworld.wordpress.com, ARTBLOG: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com,
ARGONZAPOEM: http://argonzapoem.blogspot.com]

Friday, July 02, 2010

BOOST PHILIPPINES’ BUDGET TO 2ND WORLD LEVEL

Erle Frayne D. Argonza


I wish so much to write notes about the planet and all the world’s regions, but I surely find it so irresistible to write reflections about my own country. I’m sure my friends and readers will understand this, me being a patriotic lover of my country and people despite our collective imperfections.

That said, let me focus this time around on the matter of budget. We have a new presidency, a new set of leaders from national to local levels, and I don’t want to miss out on delivering unsolicited advises to our new government concerning budgets.

By the end of this year 2010 our Gross Domestic Product or GDP will hit P8.25 Trillion more or less (it was P7.67 Trillion in 2009). That’s roughly U.S. $183 Billion (nominal value). Add the $18 Billion forecast Net Factor Income from Abroad or NFIA (read: overseas remittances), and the total figure yields $201 Billion.

$201 Billion national income is a 2nd World or ‘middle income’ country level of wealth. Let us stick to the figure and level so we won’t get detracted by the Gordian knots of discourse. This being so, the Filipinos deserve to see their state funded at 2nd World level and not any level otherwise.

Let us, for the sake of minimalist discourse, peg an annual budget at 30% of the GNP. The 30%-50% figure is known in scientific parlance as ‘critical mass’. To simplify our discourse, a ‘critical mass’ of budget will provide ample space for fiscal maneuverability, fund social services in fat sums, build more infrastructures, and pay up for state debts.

Any budget that is below ‘critical mass’ is direly undernourished, even as it could jeopardize our way to development ‘maturity’ and higher incomes for our households by 2016. Remember, we can no longer go back to the days of austerity that kept us mired in poor country status for a long time, so let’s better spend—with the expectation that spending will stimulate other sectors to grow.

The budget allocation for this year is a measly P1.5 Trillion. Measly in that it only grew by P100 Billion, or 7.14% from the P1.4 Trillion budget of 2009. A budget, to make sense and impact, must grow by at least 10% ever year.

30% of GNP means that our budget should not be lower than $60 Billion to qualify as ‘middle income’ country budget. Using the P45.50 to the dollar as our conversion rate, the expected budget should be Philippine P2.73 Trillions. That indexical calculation instantly renders RP’s 2010 budgetary appropriation short of P1 Trillion to make sense and impact at all.

Another unsolicited advise is that education, my favorite sector being an educator (teacher & social scientist), should get the largest share of the pie. And this should be at least 5% of the GNP. Let me stress that the benchmark should be GNP and not GDP since the latter unjustly leaves out the overseas workers & entrepreneurs in the equation.

The annual budget for education should therefore be at least U.S. $10 Billion, or Philippine P455 Billions. Contrast that figure to the P150 Billion allocated for education in the 2010 budgetary appropriation, and one can easily see why Philippine education is mired in cesspools.

The P455 Billions could be split up into the following: P250 Billions for primary education, and P205 for tertiary education. The total figures don’t include yet those budgets allocated by local governments for education, which when added to national appropriations could yield a figure much higher—at past 7% of GNP—appropriated for education alone.

Where to get the funds is another question for that matter. Let the question be tossed to the legislature, treasury/finance departments, and central bank to settle. It is important that I have delivered the message here very clearly: that a second world economy must affix budgets at figures befitting a 2nd world budget.

[Philippines, 30 June 2010]

[See: IKONOKLAST: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com,
UNLADTAU: http://unladtau.wordpress.com,
COSMICBUHAY: http://cosmicbuhay.blogspot.com,
BRIGHTWORLD: http://erlefraynebrightworld.wordpress.com, ARTBLOG: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com,
ARGONZAPOEM: http://argonzapoem.blogspot.com]