PH ECONOMIC OPPORTUNIY SITUATIONER

TEAM ARGONZA DISCUSSIONS 2013

TOPIC: PH ECONOMIC OPPORTUNIY SITUATIONER

Prepared By: Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Purpose: Review Ph economic performance with focus on the present Opportunities (offsetting possible Threats to personal growth/abundance).

Context – Global Economy (200+ Countries):

·         1^st World: Over-developed Industrial/Post-Industrial (service) economies, globally dominant, w/ GDP per capita exceeding US$30,000

·         2^nd World: Prosperous, Growth-to-Maturity phased industrializing economies, but subordinated to/satellites of 1^st World, w/ GDP per capita range US$1,000-$30,000

·         3^rd World: Poor, agrarian economies, highly dependent on 1^st and 2^nd World for their own growth sustenance, w/ GDP per capita below US$1000

Context - Urban Planet:

·         35 Global Cities (Big City types) comprise the Global Nexus (center), all Over-developed, mostly Megapolis types (over 10 million population).

·         Manila, Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur, Singapore, Bangkok…Beijing, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Tokyo, Seoul… Washington DC, Los Angeles, New York, Toronto, Mexico… Mumbai, Calcutta…London, Paris, Brussels, Rome, Berlin, Moscow…Rio De Janeiro, etc.

·         When you’re in any of the 35 metropole cities, you’re situated inside the CENTER of the world.

PH Today:

·         2^nd World Economy, Developing Economy, Middle Income Economy, in the Growth Stage-to-Maturity Stage transition.

·         43^rd Largest Economy in current exchange rate (2011, WorldBank)

·         33^rd Largest Economy in GDP PPP (2010, economywatch.com)

·         Emerging Market—economies w/ (a) significant Middle Class families each earning US$6,000-$30,000 per annum, and (b) very large population or domestic market.

·         Tiger Economy: among High Growth developing economies of Asia.

·         Graduated from IMF Program during GMA’s incumbency yet. Threat situation of IMF austerity programs diminished, eg. Wage Freeze, Downsize government bureaucracy, New Taxes on utilities… PH now contributing to IMF funding (creditor).

·         Manila, however, is 1^st World status, contributing 30% of GDP, is ‘relatively autonomous’. Manila’s regional GDP is 35% Industry & 65% Services. It’s part of the Global Nexus.

Emerging Context: ASEAN & AMF

·         ASEAN is targeted to achieve economic integration by 2015

·         Asian Monetary Fund, envisioned to bankroll Asia-wide financial needs, will monetize the Asian Currency. Asian countries approved it in principle. [Note: Marcos’ vision, securitized by his gold.]

National Income Indicators:

·         GDP Growth Rate: 6.6% (2012, NEDA)

·         GDP Purchasing Power Parity: US$$391.1 billion (2011 est., WF)

·         GDP Official Exchange Rate: $221.2 B (2011 Estimate, WF)

·         Net Factor Income from Abroad (NFIA):  $21.6 B (Jan-Nov. 2012, BSP)

·         NFIA Composition: Overseas Workers’ Remittances + Overseas Filipino Investments’ Remittances [No data on breakdown]

·         GNP = GDP + NFIA

·         GDP Per Capita Purchasing Power Parity: $4,100 (2011 estimate, WF)

·         GDP Composition: Agriculture - 12.8%, Industry - 31.4%, Services - 55.8% (2011 est., WF)

·         Underground Economy: At least 45% of GDP (economists’ estimate)

Labor Indicators:

·         Total Labor/Manpower: 40.427 M (July 2012, DOLE)

·         Distribution: Food Production/Agri - 33%; Industry – 15%; Services – 52% (2010 Est. WF)

·         Employment Rate: 93.2% (Oct. 2012, NSO)

·         Unemployment Rate: 6.8% (Oct. 2012, NSO)

·         Underemployment Rate: 19% (Oct. 2012, NSO)

Population Estimates:

·         Total Population/2010 Census: 92.34 Million (May 2010, NSO)

·         Population Growth Rate: 1.9% (2000-2010 period, NSO)

·         Dec. 2012 Population Estimate: 96,700,000

·         Urban Population: 70% (2012 Est.; Note-2% added to urban pop’n annually)

·         Rural Population: 30%  (2012 Est.; Note-2% decline in rural pop’n annually)

Other Key Macro-Indicators:

·         Overall Balance of Payments (BOP): $4.515 B / surplus (Jan-Sept 2012, BSP)

·         Gross International Reserves (GIR): US$83.831 Billion (End of 2012, NSCB, BSP), $85.76 (Jan. 2013, BSP)

·         Credit Standing: BBB, 1 notch below Investment Grade (Moody’s, Standard & Poor, Fitch)

·         Investments Rate: 19.1% of GDP (2011, WF)

·         Savings Rate: East Asia, 35% of GDP (average, galbithink.org)

·         Inflation Range: 3.2% (2012, lowest in 5 yrs), range 2.5%-3.4% (BSP, 29 Jan., 2013)

·         Exports: $52 B…Imports: $59 B  (2012, NSO]

Some Highlights/Features:

·         Shopping & Fashion Capital of Asia (Manila) à driving Retail, F&B, Realty (malls, commercial space)

·         Business Process Outsourcing metropole of Asia àdriving up Realty (office space)

·         4^th Major Shipbuilder: “The Philippines is a major player in the global shipbuilding industry with shipyards in Subic, Cebu, General Santos City and Batangas.^[35][36] It became the fourth largest shipbuilding nation in 2010.” (Wikipedia)

·         Mixed Energy sources: <30 70="" energy="" environment="" for="" impressive="" non-renewable="" or="" past="" policy="" re="" renewable="" span="" w="">

·         Advanced/mature engineering design innovations in hydro power, solar tech, power interloping grid… semiconductors, microchips, pc hardware capabilities, pc software, robotics, nanotech

·         Tourism rising (domestic + foreign inbound tourists), Boracay is World’s Top Island Tourist Destination (2012) àdriving up hotels, F&B, air transport & shipping

·         Bullish Stock Market, exceeded 6,000 Pts in Dec. 2012 (Crisis point is 2000 pts)…

Forecasts:

·         IMF 2013: “The Philippines, in particular, is seen to grow faster at six percent, a revision from the IMF’s October outlook of 4.8 percent.” (PhilStar)

·         Growth for 2013 will be 6.5% (Sec A.Balisacan, NEDA)

·         2050: Ph will be 14^th Largest Economy (Goldman Sachs, see Wikipedia)

·         Among Next 11 Economies: “are the eleven countries—Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, and Vietnam—identified by Goldman Sachs investment bank and economist Jim O'Neill in a research paper as having a high potential of becoming, along with the BRICs/BRICS, the world's largest economies in the 21st century.” (Wikipedia)

·         “HSBC projects the Philippine economy to become the 16th largest economy in the world, 5th largest economy in Asia and the largest economy in the South East Asian region by 2050.^[25]” (Wikipedia)

·         Remittances from Overseas Filipino Investments will surpass Overseas Workers’ in the long run (analysts’ shared forecast)

·         1^st World Econ status achievable by 2025-2030, w/ 4 out of 16 regions joining Manila in the 1^st world club, eg. STagalog, CLuzon, West Visayas, Central Visayas (E. Argonza)

·         Luzon’s Expressways SMC-led projects, finished by 2015-16: Tarlac-Pangasinan-La Union Expressway (TPLEx) to eventually extend to Laoag, Ilocos Norte; Northern Luzon East Expressway (NLEEx) to Aparri, Cagayan Valley; SLEX extended to Bicol.