ASEAN AEROSPACE PROGRAM

Erle Frayne D. Argonza


Magandang araw! Good day, most especially to fellow Southeast Asians!

For this piece I’m going to focus on the theme of an ASEAN-wide rocket industry-based aerospace program. ASEAN is about to integrate economically by 2015, so may the member states put in the list of agenda for action the launching of a regional aerospace program.

As the region’s member countries grow at immense rates, the middle class of the region will likewise grow that will serve as its sustaining consumption base. A large middle class will mean a higher demand for telecommunications infrastructures that will, in the main, depend on satellite and related facilities.

So, instead of each member country trying to outdo each other by launching their respective rocket industry-based aerospace programs, the countries better sit down together within the aegis of an ASEAN economic union, concur a binding agreement regarding the launching of an ASEAN aerospace program, and fund the entire program internally from ASEAN resources.

With an ASEAN central bank in place by 2015, it wouldn’t be so difficult to generate funds internally for all sorts of grand projects from infrastructures to aerospace. An ASEAN development bank would then be securitized by the central bank and allocate funds for the aerospace program.

Malaysia today is in the stage of research & development for a rocket industry and has begun training & development for its technical experts. It may be prudent for the ASEAN to assign to Malaysia a lead role in orchestrating the ASEAN aerospace, with the quid pro quo of compensating Malaysia for lending its expertise and certain aspects of the backward linkages for the future industry.

The aerospace program would largely be used to launch satellites and only secondarily for space research & development. The space R & D can come later, maybe at a time when the ASEAN will be prepared for political unification in the long run.

With a satellite industry in place, the ASEAN can then compete with other market stakeholders (countries & regions with satellite industry) to supply and launch the satellites of other developing countries. Project costs can be cut down at the satellite production phase, thus bringing down prices of ready-to-launch satellites and ensuring patronage by many developing countries.

All of the essential components—at the backward linkages—of satellite production are now present as running industries in the region. From metallurgy to computer software & hardware, name it and the region has it. Hence the viability of satellite industry is very high enough.

It is in the domain of rockets that the ASEAN would need to co-partner with other countries at the production phase. It can be an option for ASEAN to co-partner with Russia that can supply the rockets that will launch ASEAN’s satellites. China and India are other options also for supplying the rockets.

However, in the long run the economic union should work out to establish a strong rocket industry for itself. The rocket industry can spin off into a more comprehensive program later, one that can be extended to launching R & D in other planets and their respective moons, space tourism, and sending missions beyond the solar system.

Rocket technology can also be modified so as to integrate it into the mining industry, so that in the long term ASEAN can mine for metals in other celestial bodies. Environmental standards are getting to be stricter by the year, standards that can constrain the extraction of rare & precious metals regionally, so the alternative in such a context would be to mine for the metals in other celestial bodies.

The aerospace program is one developmental area that will prove the potency of a regional approach to launching it contrasted to country-initiated approach. Given the gargantuan level of funding that a rocket industry cum satellite industry will entail, funding that a member country will be hard put to supply, then regionalize the program altogether to circumvent country constraints.

[Philippines, 07 November 2010]

[See: IKONOKLAST: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com,
UNLADTAU: http://unladtau.wordpress.com,
COSMICBUHAY: http://cosmicbuhay.blogspot.com,
BRIGHTWORLD: http://erlefraynebrightworld.wordpress.com, ARTBLOG: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com,
ARGONZAPOEM: http://argonzapoem.blogspot.com]

ASEAN TRADE LIBERALIZATION, PREPS FOR 2015 UNION

Erle Frayne Argonza y Delago


Will the ASEAN ever achieve economic integration that its member states have long dreamed of? Being an advocate of ASEAN unification, let me once more share thoughts about my humble region.

Binding rules of tariff reforms are now in the offing for implementation this year across the region, a proof that the unification efforts are going on despite internal barriers. The original ASEAN 5 –Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand—are the most prepared for execution of the rules, while Brunei can test-case them as it has the resources to cushion off negative repercussions if ever.

Agreed, the continental countries that are catching up in their development—Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos—need some breather space of five (5) more years to be considered as executors of the same rules. They can catch up, rest assured, so collective trust should permit their self-confidence to propel themselves to high growth.

Economic integration can induce enormous growth and fast-track development in the region altogether. Pushing through with the integration would yield a result that no more member country would be poor by as early as 2020. In other worlds, every country would move on to middle income country status, fast-tracked in its growth momentum by the economic union.

Integration would go beyond tariff reforms, for a reminder. An economic union would need central institutions to note: (a) central bank, (b) regional currency, and (c) related regulatory institutions. Governance institutions, such as a regional parliament and executive council, can undergo deeper study and preparatory formation right after 2015 (political union will take a longer time to traverse).

As to a regional currency, do note that Asian countries have already agreed on a resolution to create an Asian Monetary Fund and an Asian currency. The former speaker of the Philippines’ House of Representatives, Speaker De Venecia, was a prime mover in getting the Asian states to agree on the matter. With him out of power now in the legislature, some other key personalities in Asia should take on the cudgels for implementing the resolutions.

There are surely kinks to be resolved in matters pertaining to economic sector priorities. ASEAN countries tend to compete with one another in certain manufactures and services, so the resolutions could yield an elimination of competition and/or concurring cooperation among the competitors concerned.

ASEAN integration is coming at a time of an evolving paradigm of mixed land use. This paradigm, on a macro-level, could justify well the existence of all key manufacturing and services in a member country, thus undercutting complaints about competition across borders.

Population-wise, the ASEAN will be 700 million head-strong before 2015, which renders the region as a gigantic one. Imagine if just half of the population will be middle income in status, the class that can sustain consumer spending across time. That would be a 350-million head count serving as the economic powerhouse at the household level!

In terms of aggregated Gross National Product or GNP, the figure is nearing $3 Trillions for the region. The prospect of the ASEAN overtaking Japan is no longer remote, a possibility that can happen before 2020. Such a possibility, however, can best happen should economic integration take place as scheduled, an eventuality that will render more focused managing of economic policies and governance reforms that will fast-track growth & development.

Meantime, we can only wish for now that the trade reforms will push through, thus resulting to a semi-integrated economy. The semi-integration will produce pronto a context of ‘import-substitution’ on a regional scale, which I think is a long-overdue goal in the region.

From hereon, ASEAN has only over four (4) years to resolve the last kinks, study the integration directions inclusive of institutional designs. It will be 2011 in just two months’ time, with we hope will be another auspicious year for the humble region and its noblesse diplomats, experts, and leaders.

[Philippines, 03 November 2010]

[See: IKONOKLAST: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com,
UNLADTAU: http://unladtau.wordpress.com,
COSMICBUHAY: http://cosmicbuhay.blogspot.com,
BRIGHTWORLD: http://erlefraynebrightworld.wordpress.com, ARTBLOG: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com,
ARGONZAPOEM: http://argonzapoem.blogspot.com]

ONE ASEAN: GET READY!

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Good evening! Magandang gabi!

The dark clouds of the electoral contests are now getting clearer in the Philippines. With our polls settled and our elected leaders about to begin their mandates, I’d now depart from election-related advocacies and move back to the international-global arenas.

I have written quite enormously about international political economy and subsidiary themes for over two (2) decades. Even my blogging has been consumed with peregrinations on the international arena. So let me go back to this arena, even as I now clarify that I am a strong advocate of One ASEAN.

As I’ve elucidated in my past writings (see 2007-08 articles), I perceive the ASEAN as the larger polity to which my own country will return in the future.

The Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore, the whole of island Southeast particularly, were largely creations of Western powers. They used to be part of the Majapahit Empire, the world’s wealthiest region before Western colonization fragmented it.

Being a strong believer in ASEAN unity, I am willing to shed off my hard-line Filipino nationalism and don the cloak of pan-ASEAN patriotism. Majapahit was the original nation to me and to those who resonate with the same worldview, and eager am I to see my country return to the Empire.

The Empire no longer bears that name today. Rather, it goes by the name of ASEAN, short for Association of Southeast Asian Nations. But it bears the same geo-political and geo-economic contours of the Empire before it fragmented.

A benevolent Empire it was, as it used the fiat of trade cooperation to get membership into the polity. That is, to be able to become a part of the Empire, concur trade with its nexus and prinzeps. This was a much different track from the typical military occupation used by other regional and world powers to expand their territorial confines.

If we reflect back on what our state players are doing here today, where they’re concurring agreements and treaties using the most civil means conceivable to get to a higher level of unity, the same means actually revives the consensus methods used by our peoples in antiquity. Today, no matter how diverse our political, economic, and cultural systems are, we are talking to each other here, which is reflective of a ‘dialogues of civilizations’ approach.

From state-to-state and civil society-to-civil society talks, let us move on to direct people-to-people talks in the region. People-to-people interactions precede people-to-people cooperations. I strongly contend that people-to-people cooperation should eventually be the base for state-to-state and civil society-to-civil society cooperation and no less.

State-to-state talks are quite slow in results, even if market players joined state actors to buttress the former stakeholders’ positions. In some areas of talks, such as those involving territories, snags are observed.

People-to-people interactions and cooperation will do much to accelerate state-to-state talks that get snagged for one reason or another. The same cooperation can also accelerate the building of a pan-ASEAN identity which should precede any writing of a general treaty that will unify the region at least economically.

People-to-people interactions have already been taking place in the region for almost 2000 years in fact. Western colonization may have diminished the scales of interactions for a long while, but that era of imperialism is much behind us now.

As states, market players, and civil society players are preparing for larger talks ahead, let us noble peoples of the region go ahead and expand the levels of talks to build greater mutual confidence, appreciation of each other’s cultures, and trust. Along the way, we have fellow Asians and global citizens who will support our efforts as true friends.

In any way we can, let us get to know each other better. Let’s set aside utilitarian gains (e.g. get to know Asean pals who can become network marketing partners) and interact based on a true call of our hearts, of our souls.

That way, we contribute to building our preparedness for the grand future coming. We just can’t be caught flat-footed, not knowing what’s going on in our larger backyard because we allowed state players to monopolize the talks.

Fellow ASEANians, let’s get ready!

[Writ - Philippines, 11 May 2012. E. Argonza is adept at international political economy. He was a graduate student of former ASEAN Deputy Secretary General Wilfrido Villacorta, PhD. He has published various articles on the subject, as well as a book on global trade regime.]

[See: IKONOKLAST: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com,
UNLADTAU: http://unladtau.wordpress.com,
COSMICBUHAY: http://cosmicbuhay.blogspot.com,
BRIGHTWORLD: http://erlefraynebrightworld.wordpress.com, ARTBLOG: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com,
ARGONZAPOEM: http://argonzapoem.blogspot.com]

ASEAN PEACE, COOPERATION AFTER BURMA CYCLONE: FAST-TRACK MEKONG PROJECT

Erle Frayne Argonza y Delago

[Writ Quezon City, MetroManila, 22 May 2008. The writer is a technocrat, consultant, social scientist, grassroots worker, and former senior state official.]

The latest Burma cyclone that caused much havoc, with death tolls now past the 100,000 mark, could very well be an occasion for building peace, cooperation and accelerated development in the continental Southeast Asia (Con-SE). That is, if the leaders of the region have the foresight and political will to pursue grand projects aimed at economic and political integration in the near future.

The Burma calamity is also an opportunity for the Burmese leadership (military) to mend its fractured bond not only with its constituents but also with its neighbors who that continue to perceive Burma with ambivalence precisely because of the praetorians’ illegitimate clutch of power. Burma’s development planners could well use the occasion to integrate Burma neatly into the region, attract investments and transform the country into a gateway portal for commerce & trade.

First of all, it must be recognized by various stakeholders within and outside of Burma that the catastrophic results of the cyclone did happen due to a combination of natural and human factors. The indiscriminate extraction/utilization of mangroves as well as the ceaseless and indiscriminate logging operations (past till present times) have imprinted their seemingly permanent damage on the environment. But such damage is not irreversible.

It is now a foregone conclusion that Burma’s development had flattened, and if political instabilities plus impoverishment will continue across the years, massive outflows of Burmese will be the nightmare wave of the region. Burma’s neighbors, more so the highly urbanized ones, will be swamped with migrants from the Myanmar. The migrants might bring along with them warring ethnicities that would become bases for terrorist cell formations later, thus trebling the nightmare of a ‘Burma syndrome’ in ASEAN.

So, the tall order for the ASEAN as a whole is to intervene as much as possible in fast-tracking Burma’s development. And that cannot be done, I think, without an integrated Con-SE development drafted and implemented soon. With this in place, the flow of peoples will more or less be balanced: Con-SE and Islanders-SE (Filipinos, Malaysians, Indonesians, Brueneians) will be moving in with expertise, technology and investments, while Burmese people stay with both jobs and entrepreneurships to keep them going. Competitive Burmese can then move out and seek jobs and business among their neighbors, balancing the in-migration from the latter.

Furthermore, the impetus to development must come from the ‘physical economy’. The Mekong River Project, a gigantic $100 Billion that is now in the pipeline, can be the lynchpin for all the other projects that will arise thereafter. This project has many components, among them irrigation, flood control, power generation, transportation, and tourism. It will also benefit the entire Con-SE and China which is connected to the river system upstream. The Asians have already committed to fund the project themselves and will not need external multilateral agencies at all.

Of course, the ‘green agenda’ must be well integrated into the project. Not only the Mekong but related river systems and areas as far as the sea coasts must move fast to rehabilitate damaged mangrove areas. Electrification from the hydro-plants arising will be exemplar for alternative energy sources to rise, including wind power and solar that the entire ASEAN itself can produce at present. Tourism should better follow the eco-tourism and medical tourism waves. And Indigenous Peoples or IPs should better be served well by the projects rather then they becoming sweat labor cogs in the process.

Second to the integrated Mekong and other river systems project would be a railway system across the Con-SE. An ambitious maglev railway system that will traverse within and across the borders of Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand, Laos, Burma, Malaysia and Singapore would be exceedingly excellent impetus for rapid change and development, peace and cooperation. The maglev system should then interconnect with India and China, thus creating railway loops that would be part of the emerging Eurasian railway systems.

Reinforcing projects such as gas & oil pipelines that will interconnect all of the ASEAN countries would also be great. Added to these projects would be fiber optic cables that would also connect all of the countries, and interconnect ASEAN with the emerging global fiber optic circuit. Finally, an ASEAN-wide aerospace program be considered, planned, installed and operated in the short run, which will launch satellites for the region, interconnect its countries, and launch and maintain communications satellites for other emerging markets.

Being a ‘citizen’ of ASEAN, I am looking at things from the regional perspective. And, like most fellow ASEANians, 60% of us being now so eager to interrelate, cooperate, and bond in the years ahead (per results of regional survey), I am impatient to see this region move up, eradicate all insurgencies, resolve inter-country animosities, integrate politically, and prosper as one gigantic economic powerhouse.

Failing to achieve such goals, we will be met with perpetual catastrophic cyclones, wars, ‘boat people’ nightmares, and hosts of other malaise that can better be solved if we all act as one. I just wish that the politicians and businessmen of the region would also see things this way. Maybe the businessmen could, but as to politicians, including the most admirable Mahathir, they seem to be mired in the Stone Age of parochial power struggles and localized ethnic mindsets. And I’ve grown exceedingly exasperated with their irrelevant antics.

We surely have a ‘clash of generations’ brewing here, don’t we? The younger ones, myself included, who represent the multi-cultural, postmodern, urban-suburban, space age mindsets are getting impatient at the older ones, who represent the Old Order and are still in power in all sectors, including churches, governments, businesses, civil society and ‘rebel’ sectors. Kenichi Ohmae’s prophecy of this clash is quite correct after all, and the tectonic pressure of the clash is gathering energy each day.

Before that clash would ever ignite into wars of destructive proportions, the older generations better reflect on the emerging realities here. Old perceptions and old formulas don’t work anymore. We should just move on to welcome new paradigms and not squander the great optimism among our ‘ASEAN citizens’ who are waiting to be counted in shaping the new reality.